Latest Poll numbers from The Blogging of the President: 2004
The Blogging of the President: 2004
has an excellent summary of the current polling numbers and what they might mean for the race, "Bushburgs" by Stirling Newberry (I'm not at my personal computer yet, so my linking ability is somewhat diminished). Anyway, I think the entire article is well worth the read.
Largely in agreement, and possibly redundant to Stirlings presentation, I did feel the urge to leave the comment below:
Well writen, albeit a few typos.
There are couple things that can come into play to favor Baby Bush, at least as I see them. One is that the press will get side tracked by some celebrity scandal, and news coverage of the adminstration's problems will drift to the background, this wouldn't be decisive, but it would help. Another is obviously the capture of bin Laden anytime after July. Third, (I know, I said a couple), and I'm really not sure how it plays, is another terrorist attack. I don't know if Baby Bush gets the blame for letting it happen on his watch, or if people get behind a president in crisis.
I see no help in the economy. There is no way for jobs to recover enough to help in the time remaining, and if anything goes wrong in the real estate market, Baby Bush is dead in the water, but I'm not sure how likely that is to happen.
As to Kerry, I'm really not sure what he can do to improve his numbers, but I think he might be able to use at least on issue to play heavily on in the senate. It would have to be an issue that appeals to centrists, but is avidly desired by the Core wingers on the right.
But, w/o some major crisis or success, I think the polls will reflect a continuing slide in support for this adimistration.