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Radically Inept
Friday, April 02, 2004
  More on the jobs front

Well, It's this kind of stuff that makes wonder. Predictions like thisObserver Business News Section3: "US manufacturing boosts growth
WASHINGTON
"American manufacturers boosted activity for the 10th straight month in March and factory jobs growth accelerated, cementing a key pillar in the recovery, a survey showed yesterday. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) purchasing managers' index, based on a survey of supply executives, rose 1.1 points from February to 62.5 points in March. It was the 10th month in a row above 50 points, indicating expansion in manufacturing activity. 'It looks like the factory sector is really ramping up and is now in the midst of a strong, broad-based recovery,' Wachovia senior economist Mark Vitner said.

The survey showed factory jobs growth picked up, with the employment index rising 0.7 point to 57.0. It was the fifth month of expanding manufacturing employment in the survey following a 37-month contraction. Official figures show manufacturers have shed 2.8 million jobs since January 2001. Private economists on average predict the government figures will show the economy churned out 123,000 jobs in March, after a paltry gain of 21,000 in February. Some economists even tip a gain in manufacturing employment in the month, after a 43-month stretch of net factory layoffs.

Vitner forecast a surge of 225,000 jobs in March, putting in place the last piece of the economic recovery. He tipped US economic growth of nearly five per cent in 2004. A weekly reading of the numbers of recently unemployed was only mildly encouraging. The number of people lodging new claims for unemployment benefits fell 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 342,000 in the week ended March 27, after a gain of 12,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said."


And then jobs report comes out with 307,000 jobs added in non-farm payrolls for the month of March, but I expect the numbers to be revised down, as they have been consistently over the past half year. I suspect a whole lot of political and business interests round up all of the supporting numbers to get these, and then when most people aren't looking, the numbers drop significantly. Though, the January numbers were revised up from about 97,000 jobs to 157,000. So, who knows? Certainly no one I've read or heard has any kind of accuracy rate over the long term to have earned any credibility with me. 
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